Accountable Update

A Hot Time on Wall Street

“Sell in May and go away” is the Wall Street market timing strategy that suggests investors are better off in cash during the hotter months of the year. The idea is that traders, money managers, and bankers all leave the city to escape the heat of the summer. It has been hot this summer but US stocks haven’t taken any time off as the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 27,000 and the S&P 500 briefly broke through the 3000 point level for the first time ever this week.

While the benefits of trying to time the market with a calendar are dubious, it has been my observation that summer isn’t the season that folks are most inclined to discuss their investments and financial plans. I have fewer appointments, my phone doesn’t ring as often, and emails aren’t returned as quickly this time of year. While it’s common for people to ask me about my opinions on the stock market at holiday parties, almost no one asks at the ballpark or the lake. Normally those conversations are about travel plans, rain, or how the BBQ was cooked. Recently, however, I’ve found my poolside discussions increasingly are about whether now is a good time to buy stocks or if recent highs mean a downturn is right around the corner.

When the market gets hot, it doesn’t matter what the season is. The appeal of getting in at the right time or avoiding the next downturn can tempt even the most disciplined, long-term investors. The reality of successfully timing markets, however, isn’t as straightforward as it sounds.

Q2 2019 Market Review

Remember the scene from the movie Top Gun when Tom Cruise’s character, Maverick, was asked how he could have observed a Soviet fighter jet perform a certain maneuver if he was flying above it?

“Because I was inverted,” replied Maverick.

Tom Cruise could have been playing the US Bond Market in Q2 as longer maturity bond yields fell below those on the shorter end of the curve, or in other words, inverted.

Conventional wisdom says that when long term bonds become more pricey than shorter term bonds, a recession is coming. However, as we discussed last November in this Accountable Update post, sometimes the stock market does an Iceman (Val Kilmer) and calls BS on the bond market.

The S&P 500 made new highs and the economy continued humming along at 3.1% in Q1 with US job openings outnumbering the number of people that are out of work. With Fed rate cuts now seeming more likely, an elusive trade deal with China, saber rattling in the Middle East (does that ever stop?), and the rhetoric of the 2020 Presidential campaign already making headlines, we might as well get our popcorn ready for the second half of 2019. If you came in late or weren’t paying attention, here’s what happened in the last act.

Evidence or Eloquence? Pursuing a Better Investment Experience

In most relationships, we tend to share beliefs, interests, and world views with our partners.

Democrat or Republican?
Religious or Secular?
Cat or Dog?
Beach or Mountains?
Cowboys or Texans?

Fortunately, in financial advice and planning relationships, we work with clients that have diverse opinions. While we may prefer different political candidates, sports teams, etc., the role of rules and math in the planning and investment process allows for a détente from most of the world’s divisions. But it is the answer to an unasked question that can largely determine if a prospective client may be a fit for ATX Portfolio Advisors.

Evidence or Eloquence?