Why All Errors Aren't Bad in Investing

Many years ago, I played high school baseball. I was a light-hitting infielder with a weak arm, but I was decent at scooping up ground balls. Our coach, a former college player, had a magical touch with a fungo bat; he could make a baseball dance—hard grounders, towering pop flies, with spins that would exaggerate the ball’s movement. On one windy, cloudless spring day, he decided to test us with his aerial arsenal. The baseballs seemed to defy physics, often falling harmlessly to the ground. Each miss was met with a loud "Eeeeeeeeeee" (short for error), and you'd quickly find yourself benched. We all quickly came to appreciate that our coaches would not tolerate excess errors.

A few years later, when I first started in the investing business, my job was to take stock, bond, and options trades from clients over the telephone. This was the early 1990s, before most investors could buy or sell stocks from their personal computers or mobile devices. I was literally a middleman between the customer and the back office trading desks that actually transmitted the orders to the appropriate exchange or market. One particular month, during a time that we were extremely busy, I was working double shifts for overtime pay and made a few mistakes. Those trade errors wound up costing the company money, and subsequently I received coaching from my manager about how damaging errors are to the customer’s trust and the company’s bottom line. That only reinforced my belief that errors are just as bad, if not worse, in investing than they are in baseball.

But what if I told you that in investing, some errors are not just acceptable but desirable? Here, I'm talking about "tracking error," a term that, if properly understood, can make you a better investor.

Q4 2024 Market Review - An Analysis of Market Dynamics

The fourth quarter of 2024 was marked by significant volatility across global markets, as reflected by the performance of the MSCI All Country World Index. We navigated through a landscape shaped by a major shift to the right in US politics, higher inflation, and a stronger US dollar. The Federal Reserve signaled fewer rate cuts on the horizon which led to a subdued finale to what otherwise was a very strong year in the markets…

The Three-Legged Chicken of Investments: Why Guaranteed Products Aren't Always What They Seem

Have you heard the tale of a three-legged chicken? It serves as an apt metaphor for the "too good to be true" products marketed to unsuspecting investors. Recently, a client of mine was reminded of this tale when dealing with a complex Guaranteed Minimum Withdrawal Benefit (GMWB) variable annuity. Sold by a "friend" years ago, this annuity promised guaranteed income and stock market growth. Unfortunately, it turned out to be more of a cautionary tale than a golden goose.

Years later, the underlying investment value hadn't grown significantly. My client had been paying high annual fees—over 2%—which steadily eroded returns. When he wanted to move the account, he faced hefty surrender penalties, as high as 7%. Thankfully, we found a solution that helped him preserve his investment, but it underscored the dangers of chasing unrealistic guarantees.

For anyone considering "guaranteed" products, let me share a story about a chicken...