I often am asked what I think is going to happen in the stock market. For anyone that has read this blog or spoken to me for any period of time on the topic of investing, you probably know that there is scant evidence that “smart” investors can consistently outsmart the market. Yet, I still get asked what I think is going to happen.

Maybe I should take it as a compliment that someone thinks highly of my opinion. My answer, however, is very consistent. I don’t know what is going to happen in the short term but owning stocks for the long haul has been a great vehicle to build wealth. The price of that ticket, however, is the uncertainty of knowing day to day what the value is going to be.

For those that are old enough, think back to your feelings about the economy and the stock market as we approached the year 2000. The dot.com stocks were booming, the economy was humming, we were enjoying the peace dividends of the end of the cold war. Were you pessimistic about the next decade? As it turned out, US stocks were one of the worst places to invest during the first decade of this century.

How did you feel as we entered 2010? Just out of a generational bear market, the War on Terror raging, the Great Recession still hanging over everything. Were you optimistic at that point? It would have been profitable if you were, as stocks have performed quite well in this second decade of the 2000’s.

In any event, if you had stayed the course in US stocks over the last 20 years, you would have about three times more money than you started with. Not too shabby for “dumb” investors that just stayed the course.

But I know that you would probably like to see some more evidence, so I’ve attached a recent article from Dimensional titled A Tale of Two Decades: Lessons for Long Term Investors.

If you are feeling uncertain about your future, it may be a good time to get in touch to review your financial plan.